Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) while on a Sallah visit to President Muhammadu Buhari in Daura, Katsina State announced Senator Kashim Shettima, a former Borno state governor as his running mate, confirming weeks of speculations that the APC will adopt a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the 2023 presidential ballot.
Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim from Lagos in his defence said he chose Shettima, a Kanuri Mulsim to be his running mate because of his competence and credentials in public service which should be placed above religious considerations.
The former Lagos state governor also referred to the annulled 1993 presidential election, where the presumed winner, MKO Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a Muslim from Ogun state, picked another Muslim, Babagana Kingibe from Borno state as his running mate.
Despite his justification for a Muslim-Muslim ticket, Tinubu has come under intense criticism from the Christian communities in Nigeria, especially the Northern Christians who feel shortchanged by the decision of Tinubu to pick a Muslim from the north. Prominent Northern Christian politicians like Plateau state governor; Simon Lalong, Secretary to the government of the federation; Boss Mustapha, former speaker of the House of Representatives; Yakubu Dogara were among prominent Northern Christians touted to emerge as running mates.
The decision has also witnessed the resignation of prominent party stalwarts and outrage from religious and interest groups who believe that Tinubu’s pick negates the principle of equity, justice and fairness considering Nigeria’s current realities.
But can a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket succeed in today’s Nigeria? Here’s an analysis:
NEED FOR RELIGIOUS BALANCING
In 1993, the Muslim-Muslim ticket worked because the faultlines that separate us as a people were minimal. The same cannot be said of today’s Nigeria which has become highly polarized along religious and ethnic lines with the fear of domination and subjugation of one religion by another palpable. The sudden rise of Jihadi terror groups, religious fanatics and extremists has also heightened the fear of Christian communities that religious domination is on course.
Since the return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria had maintained a religious balance in the top two positions in the land to reflect the religious views of the nation and to carry all sections along. It was this understanding that prompted President Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim from Katsina to drop current APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu for Professor Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from Ogun state as his running mate in 2015.
The need for religious balancing in the presidency may likely affect the electoral fortune of the APC in 2023. The decision of the Northern political establishments to deny Northern Christians the opportunity to become Tinubu’s running mate on the ground that Muslims who are the majority in the region won’t vote for a fellow northern Christian as vice-president has sowed the seed of discord and disaffection in the north.
Christian communities in the north will most likely not vote for Tinubu in protest over the decision of the APC. Despite the minority tag, Northern states like Taraba, Plateau, and Benue are predominantly Christians while Adamawa, Borno, Niger, Kaduna, Kogi, Nasarawa, Bauchi and Gombe states have a sizable Christian population. The Christian communities in these states will rather vote for another political that has at least a Christian on the ticket. This will spell doom for the APC who are not guaranteed 100% of the Muslim votes in the north due to the presence of another northerner and Muslim, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on the ballot.
Just like their Northern counterpart, the Southern Christians may not vote for the APC due to the Muslim-Muslim ticket controversy. Though Tinubu will secure a considerable number of votes in his indigenous South-West, a majority of voters in the South-South and South-East will not fancy the APC presidential candidate in 2023 over his choice of a running mate.
FEAR OF RELIGIOUS DOMINATION
Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket may fail in 2023 because of the fear of domination of one religion over another. Nigeria is divided roughly in half between Muslims and Christians and political positions especially the top two should reflect that diversity. The perceived lopsided appointment by the Buhari administration and the unprovoked attacks on churches and Christian communities in the country has further compounded the situation of the APC candidate. The fear of a religion dominating another may affect the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the APC in 2023.
INFLUENCE OF THE CHRISTIAN ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA (CAN)
CAN, the umbrella body of all Christians in Nigeria has vehemently spoken against the idea of a Muslim-Muslim ticket and will most certainly influence the church through the clergy to vote against the APC in next year’s election.
PRESENCE OF ATIKU AND OBI ON THE BALLOT
The presence of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) respectively on the ballot has provided a wide range of options for electorates who are aggrieved by the choice of APC to field a Muslim-Muslim ticket. The PDP and LP have a balanced ticket and may likely enjoy the massive votes of Christian communities in the country. Atiku, a Fulani-Muslim from Northern Nigeria will also garner votes from Muslims in the north. This permutation will affect the electoral fortune of the APC in 2023.
OUR STANDPOINT:
The need to have religious balancing in the polity of a polarized nation like Nigeria cannot be over-emphasized. The APC and its presidential candidate must come up with a strong explanation of why the Christian community in Nigeria should support a Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023. The explanation that Shettima was picked because of competence and political expediency is not sufficient enough because the north is not shy of eminently qualified and competent Christians who can serve as Tinubu’s running mate.
Unless something extraordinary is done to assuage the nerves of the Christian community in Nigeria, the APC may be on course to self-destruction in 2023.
