Dr Olalekan Babatunde, Research Fellow, Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution spoke to our correspondent on the war in Ukraine one year down the line and the role of China in the year-long conflict.
Q: February 24, 2023, will make it exactly one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. According to reports, over 41,000 persons have been killed just 12 months into the fighting. How will you describe the war, one year down the line?
Dr Babatunde: Thank you very much. It is quite unfortunate that as the world needs peace and development, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, we witnessed a lot of destruction to our socio-economic and political lives from the crisis between Russia and Ukraine and the untold destruction of lives, properties and displacements of persons. Aside from this, we also saw disruptions on a global scale to the energy, food and supply chains. I see the war as an unfortunate development in our humanity which shouldn’t be allowed to take place in the first place if the so-called superpowers, stakeholders and allies had listened to the voice of reason.
Q: How will you describe China’s stance in the war in Ukraine?
Dr Babatunde: China is a superpower and has positioned itself strategically in this crisis between Russia and Ukraine. China has been very mature in terms of its engagement in this war. It did not endorse nor condemn the war. China has played a neutral position and it has been engaging with Russia because of the no-limit relations agreement between both countries. China is standing by this commitment and has also provided humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. So China has placed itself in a strategic way which is commendable. China is not in a position of violence or war. China wants peace and the settlement of this conflict through multilateralism, negotiation and diplomacy.
Q: As we all know, the United States of America and other Western nations opposed the war and imposed severe sanctions on Russia but China did not condemn the invasion nor impose sanctions on Russia. Instead, trade and diplomatic relations between China and Russia have increased in the past year. Do you think China is benefitting from this conflict?
Dr Babatunde: On February 26, 2022, just two days after the invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations general assembly met and imposed sanctions on Russia. But China joined other 34 countries to abstain from the condemnation of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. And when sanctions were imposed, China considered it as being unilateral and against international practice. China, India, Saudi Arabia and others did not support the unilateral imposition of sanctions on Russia. That is why today, China is still engaging in trade relationships with Russia. You cannot say China is taking advantage of the war. Don’t forget that China is also a member of BRICS alongside Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, hence has the liberty to relate with Russia at all levels. China considers relationships very strongly and sees no reason to stop relating with Russia. Both countries share thousands of kilometres of borders and have good reason to relate especially in the area of trade.
Q: The United States of America recently accused China of supplying weapons to Russia. Is this true?
Dr Babatunde: No. Let me put it this way. During the Munich security conference in Germany, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken accused China of preparing to supply lethal support to Russia. But this claim was vehemently rejected by China. It is important to state that the United States will continue to poke China as far as this war is concerned, but both countries have a way of resolving their issues diplomatically. But as far as China is concerned, it will continue to forge a cordial trade relationship with Russia. China has no reason to escalate tensions by supplying weapons to Russia. China from history is not given to violence but pursuing peaceful means to conflict resolution. China strives to see a de-escalation of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine because it pays China economically and strategically for this war to come to an end. China has experienced disruptions in its supply chain due to the war.
Q: What strategic role can China play in ending this war?
Dr Babatunde: China certainly has a big role to play in bringing this conflict to an end. Recall that China had experienced conflicts and confrontations before in its national history.
China is making efforts to propose peace plans between Russia and Ukraine but the success of that plan will be countered by the United States and its allies fueling the conflict through the supply of arms to Ukraine. The US will want the conflict to linger without any peaceful resolution. They want the war to rage on to a point where Russia will be defeated. The Chinese have a lot of stake in this conflict too because of its issues with Taiwan and the United States. Any move from China in resolving this war will not be seen by the US as being neutral. This is because the Americans believe that if the war ends today, it is unlikely that Russia will hands-off occupied Ukrainian territories setting a precedent for China to annex Taiwan aggressively or through non-aggression.
Personally, I don’t see the war coming to end soon because the stakeholders, the superpowers, and the allies that are expected to be making moves for peace talks are the ones supplying arms to Ukraine. Russia is also preparing to deploy recruits into the battlefield. The war is going into another phase in which no one can predict its end. As far as Ukraine is concerned, Russia must hands off occupied territories before peace can be restored.
Q: Thanks for your time.
Dr Babatunde: Thank you.
