According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monthly report in February, African countries generally performed better in January than in December 2022.
The report also highlighted some interesting numbers, including revisions to some previous economic forecasts, as well as revisions to projected oil performance in 2023.
Given the better-than-expected economic performance of many major economies in the second half of 2022, the world economic growth forecast has been slightly raised to 3.1% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023.
In retrospect, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2022 remains unchanged from last month’s forecast of 2.5 million barrels per day.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, non-OECD demand was revised higher due to improved economic activity in some countries and a slight increase in oil consumption after China eased its zeroing policy.
In 2023, the growth rate of global oil demand is revised to 100,000 barrels per day to 2.3 million barrels per day. The OECD expects an increase of about 400,000 b/d, while the non-OECD expects an increase of about 2 million b/d.
Spot crude oil prices rose in January from their lows in the previous month. According to secondary sources, total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 2,888 b/d in January 2023, a decrease of 49 b/d from the previous month. Nigeria, Angola and Kuwait produced the most crude oil, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Islamic Republic of Iran produced the least.
Overall, January data for the seven major oil-producing countries in Africa was significantly better than December data, with the exception of Gabon, Libya and Equatorial Guinea. This was due to a number of improvements in global energy markets, most of which were detailed in OPEC’s report.
In Nigeria, the country’s performance improved in the first month of 2023 despite below-par figures for the full year 2022 and oil theft also affecting oil production.
Below is a breakdown of Africa’s largest oil producers and their January output. OPEC crude oil production is based on secondary sources and is expressed in thousands of barrels per day (tb/d):
