The Chinese economy is experiencing springtime as green shoots appear and economic recovery gains momentum, a veteran U.S. investment strategist has said.
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March greatly exceeded expectations and “it shows that following Chinese New Year that you see this acceleration taking place in China’s economy,” said Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer with the U.S.-based asset management firm Krane Funds Advisors LLC, a specialist investment management firm focused on China, climate and other uncorrelated assets.
That’s a very strong sign that the Chinese government’s policies to help stimulate the economy are trickling down into the real economy and a good sign for both the Chinese and global economies, Ahern told Xinhua on Monday.
China’s strong automobile sales numbers in March, particularly electric vehicles, show “that the consumer in China is coming back as well as the positive effect of policy support,” Ahern said.
Noting that China’s manufacturing PMI beat all forecasts by 21 economists who submitted estimates to Bloomberg, Ahern said: “At times there can be overdue pessimism. And I think nothing changes perceptions than data. The data doesn’t lie. And here the data is giving us a very strong signal.”
The improvement shows that China is emerging from COVID impacts, as its economy continues to gain momentum and consumer confidence builds over time, the strategist said.
The economic recovery will continue to pick up momentum, particularly coming out of the annual “two sessions” where there was a lot of talk regarding further policy support and likely further interest rate cuts, he said.
Ahern noted that the Chinese government smartly learned from Western governments, which spent a lot of money trying to stimulate the economy, resulting in higher inflation and worsening debt problems for some, and, instead, took a prudent and patient approach.
Corporate earnings of Chinese companies bottomed out last year and the underlying economy started to show some acceleration, with more consumers dining out at restaurants and travelling more both domestically and internationally, Ahern said.
“So we’re seeing these, kind of, green shoots … It’s starting to be springtime and you see this springtime in terms of China’s economy,” Ahern told Xinhua.
“The grass will only continue to grow after this long winter and we really do see a thaw taking place in terms of an improvement in the Chinese economy,” he added.
As the consumers in China return, consumption will expand beyond “early movers” like restaurants and travel to more traditional retail sales such as home appliances, said Ahern, adding that automobile sales have been quite strong.
Additionally, the continued upgrade in Chinese manufacturing as well as increased self-sufficiency in many technologies is another tailwind for the Chinese economy, the investment advisor said.
“China’s economy, I think, is moving upward and forward and will only continue to improve,” he said.
Ahern also urged investors to look beyond China’s economic growth rate and observe the value of China’s economic growth, which has never been higher than today.
