By Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim, Abuja
Mercantilism as the art and science of international trade envisages protectionism in both hitherto renaissance Europe and contemporary international economic relations. It connotes a nationalist or a rigid economic policy that deals with absolute protectionism of state’s interest in its trade dealings with other states. It is predetermined to maximize exports and minimize the imports of an economy, which in the parlance, the doctrine states clearly that a nation should be able to export more than it imports. There is narrow gap in the nuances between mercantilism and neomercantilism which practically signifies the highest level of mercantilism. It involves persistent trade surplus having exports exceeding imports; protectionist measures such as tariffs and subsidies to shield local industries from international competitions; government intervention in to the economic circle to achieve national economic goals; the drive to expand the quantum of national wealth and reposition the strength of the state within the international system.
It is therefore, clear, that the United States under Trump engages in protectionist economic policy which shows the weaknesses of the government as it resorts to imposing tariffs against the liberal capitalist tenets of trade liberalization and free trade. Tariffs are usually levies or taxes imposed on imported goods in which the importer receives additional imposition against the former levies and the burden goes to the final consumer. This goes with rising prices of goods and services and may in the long-run create inflation and high cost of living. These have been ignored or not known by President Trump as he posited that they were imposing tariffs on foreign governments.
The year 2025 is not the origin of U.S. imposing tariffs on China or on other nations by President Trump, but the first wave of tariff emanated since 2018, when the U.S. Trade Representative concluded its Section 301 investigation, which allegedly found that China’s policies and practices were discriminatory and burden or restrict U.S. commerce.” Consequently, President Trump applied a 25 percent tariff on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports and China responded on July 6, 2018, with a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of U.S. goods, including agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, poultry, and beef.
China did not relent or have a flinch, but immediately identified Brazil as an alternative source of soybeans. China imports the most soybeans in the world, about 95 million metric tons in 2017. This number dropped by 7 million metric tons in 2018. Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans decreased from about 32.9 million tons in 2017 to 16.6 million tons in 2018. Brazilian soybean exports to China more than doubled in December 2018 while U.S. soybean exports fell by 99 percent in October and 100 percent in November 2018. This shows that Trump is not learning a lesson of history or he is utterly oblivious of what transpired in his first term with regards to tariff war with China.
Trump has succeeded in destroying a regional economic community that guaranteed integration, cooperation and interdependence by relegating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and by imposing 25% tariffs on goods from both Canada and Mexico. These were originally due to start on 4 February but were delayed for a month to allow further negotiations. The 25% tariffs began on 4 March, with a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports.
Considering the power of interdependence and the fact that the United States also imports from Canada and Mexico, the outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Trump as he asserted that the American President wished “a total collapse of the Canadian economy [to] make it easier to annex us.” This came after Trump introduced the idea of annexing Canada and making it part of the United States. Canada responded by saying that it would immediately target C$30bn ($21bn; £16bn) worth of US imports, and goods worth a further C$125bn in 21 days. Mark Carney also strongly criticized Trump’s “unjustified tariffs”, and vowed that “in trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford had said he would bring in a 25% surcharge on Canadian electricity exports to three US states: Michigan, New York and Minnesota in response to the tariffs. This has shown resilience on the part of Canada and never bow to American threats and economic or trade war.
Mexico did not take a rigid position like Canada and did not take a retaliatory measure against the Trump’s policy, but agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border to help tackle smuggling, but Trump is unpredictable, still went ahead and declare tariffs on Mexico. Prior to this, Trump announced the concessions for carmakers and other goods, which Mexico welcomed. President Trump has also damaged years of U.S.- Europe relations with the introduction of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from around the world. In response, Canada and the EU have announced new tariffs on US goods worth billions of dollars, stoking fears of a global trade war. Trump has also threatened to impose a 200% tariff on alcohol from EU countries unless the bloc scraps its “nasty 50% tariff on whisky”.
President Trump has completely forgotten the fact that China will retaliate against any form of intimidation, imposition or attempt to wage trade war against it, it was on 4 February, 2025, Trump imposed a 10% charge on all goods coming from China and later exempted shipments worth less than $800. On 10 February, 2025, China responded with its own tariffs, including a 10-15% tax on some US agricultural goods. China also targeted various US aviation, defense and tech firms by adding them to an “unreliable entity list” and imposing export controls. In addition to the above, China doubled the 10% levy to 20% on 4 March. China does not seek war, confrontation or economic protectionism and asked the U.S. to resort to dialogue for mutual understanding. The caveat issued by China from its Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian is that “If the United States… persists in waging a tariff war, a trade war, or any other kind of war, the Chinese side will fight them to the bitter end.”
It is clear that China is ready to go down to any length to protect international economic relations against its mishandling by Donald Trump. This is evident in China’s announcement of some non-tariff measures, one of which is an anti-monopoly investigation into U.S. tech giant Google. Similarly, in February, China added PVH, the American company that owns designer brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, to its “unreliable entity” list and accused them of “discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises.” China has also imposed export controls on 25 rare metals. Some of the metals are key components for many electrical products and military equipment. It is in line with the above that China boldly stated that “Intimidation does not scare us. Bullying does not work on us. Pressuring, coercion or threats are not the right way of dealing with China.”
The outcome of Trump’s tariff war is clearly generating crisis in the U.S. economy, with experts predicting a general recession as the country is beginning to prepare for uncertainties as what might transpire in the nearest future is unknown. This comes as China concluded its 2025 Two Sessions, a gathering that brings the National People’s Congress which is the highest legislative body and the highest advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) together. The 2025 Government Working Report has given a target of 5% economic growth with certainties in economic stability, job creation, stable price and employment rate, among others, in the country.
Prof Sheriff Ghali Ibrahim is the Director, Center for Contemporary China-Africa Research in Nigeria and Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Abuja.
